Professor Chris Gilligan

Head of Epidemiology and Modelling Group.

Plant Disease Modelling

Plant disease epidemics cause major economic shocks and reductions in food production. Epidemics can be especially harmful in developing countries where communities are often highly dependant on agriculture for subsistence and household income.

Current research is focused on establishing and testing a theoretical framework that identifies the mechanisms that control invasion, persistence, scaling and variability of epidemics within changing agricultural and natural landscapes. Applications range from large-scale pandemics (sudden oak death, citrus canker, African cassava mosaic virus), through pesticide resistance and genetical control to biocontrol in sustainable agricultural systems, and to the design of intervention strategies for exotic pathogen threats to the UK.

The research involves a synthesis of epidemiological theory, population and evolutionary genetics, landscape ecology and economic modelling, drawing upon methods from statistical physics and Bayesian statistical inference, supported by a complementary experimental programme involving laboratory microcosms and collation of extensive field and regional data-sets to test the models.